Eigentlich hätte ich erwartet, dass Holger Schmieding und ich dafür kritisiert würden, in unserem Kurzbericht “More mirage than miracle” (von dem heute auch die Times berichtet) ein zu düsteres Bild der britischen Wirtschaft gemalt zu haben. Aber das Gegenteil ist der Fall. Der Kommentator des Telegraph bescheinigt uns, dass wir die Lage immer noch zu rosig sehen:
Personal debt could sink ss Great Britain
It’s been plain sailing for the UK economy thanks to a constant reach of low interest rates. But things have got too easy, and we’ve steered ourselves into some choppy waters, with many on the good ship Great Britain starting to feel queasy and out of their depth. I refer to the swell of debt. ...
The Policy Exchange think-tank describes our economy as “more mirage than miracle”. It describes an under-achieving country with a lot of growth based on rising house prices fuelled by cheap debt. But there are many more things about the UK economy that are unreal on closer inspection.
Unemployment, widely considered low, is in reality much higher. Look no further than the 2.5m people on incapacity benefit, half of whom have been apparently unfit to work for five years. Despite the billions we’ve pumped into the National Health Service, employers (and hard-working colleagues) are being fobbed off with the longest sick note in Europe.
Much of our economic “miracle” has come from London. But the success of Britain’s first city has been built mainly on financial services. We’ve already seen job cuts in the Square Mile. If our first city sees a slow-down, will our second city be in a position to pick up the baton?
Not if it’s Birmingham, where unemployment is 7.4pc and 20pc of the working population have no qualifications. There are some Brummy beacons in manufacturing, but the city is more hollowed-out shell than vibrant centre.
The truth is the good ship Great Britain is highly unstable. To the port side is a vast public sector only just countered by a private sector on starboard over-reliant on financial markets that look ready to go overboard any moment. Looking nervously at the lifeboats are millions of consumers who have been on a spending binge on the back of a housing market now cooling. By the way, that shape looming in the darkness is an iceberg. It’s called debt.
