Zuerst die schlechte Nachricht:

The best seismologists in the world don’t know when the next big earthquake will hit. But a Tel Aviv University geologist suggests that earthquake patterns recorded in historical documents of Middle Eastern countries indicate that the region’s next significant quake is long overdue.

A major quake of magnitude seven on the Richter scale in the politically-fragile region of the Middle East could have dire consequences for precious holy sites and even world peace, says Tel Aviv University geologist Dr. Shmulik Marco. In light of this imminent danger, Marco, from the school’s Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, has taken an historical approach to earthquake forecasting by using ancient records from the Vatican and other religious sources in his assessment. The past holds the key to the future, he says.

“All of us in the region should be worried,” explains Marco, who dedicates his career to piecing together ancient clues.

Based on the translations of hundreds of documents—some of the originals of which he assumes reside in Vatican vaults—Marco has helped determine that a series of devastating earthquakes have hit the Holy Land over the last two thousand years. The major ones were recorded along the Jordan Valley in the years 31 B.C.E., 363 C.E., 749 C.E., and 1033 C.E. “So roughly,” warns Marco, “we are talking about an interval of every 400 years. If we follow the patterns of nature, a major quake should be expected any time because almost a whole millennium has passed since the last strong earthquake of 1033.”
http://www.tauac.org/site/News2?page=NewsArticle&id=5835

Und hier ein etwas hoffnungsvollerer Bericht:

Scientifically, it’s almost a sure thing — Tokyo is awaiting a catastrophic earthquake. In fact, it’s long overdue.

And when it does hit, officials say, there is one other thing that is a near certainty — hundreds of thousands of people will be in need of shelter that the government will not be able to provide. Studies show as many as 3 million will be homeless, some 600,000 more than shelters can now handle.

But with little space for new facilities, the city is hoping to cut down those numbers — and the number of deaths and injuries — by providing residents with the world’s first wide-scale earthquake prediction system, which became operational on Monday.

The city is hoping that, with its extremely high population density and little space available to build new shelters, giving residents more information and even a slight heads up will cut down on confusion, mitigate the secondary damage caused by fires and encourage them to plan ahead for how to cope and where to go.

The new warning system uses data provided by the Meteorological Agency, which maintains an intricate network of sensors deep underground nationwide that estimate the intensity of a quake as soon as the ground ruptures.

The system works by detecting primary waves, which spread from the epicenter of a quake and travel faster than the destructive shear waves. When primary waves of a certain intensity are detected, the alarms are set off as much as 30 seconds ahead of the shear waves. Public broadcaster NHK will relay the warning almost instantaneously to its television and radio audience.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iszb_fscvlKzowP8yHx4m7YS7EoQD8S09T8O0