Forget the Arab Spring. Islamists have already hijacked it. But, as if internally extinguishing the hope of democracy isn’t enough, dark clouds are now gathering to blot out the economic ‘sun’ for the oil-powered Middle East states, ushering in – courtesy of the West’s technological fracking ‘miracle’ – a new Arab winter.

According to one recent report, the dramatic expansion of US production could push global spare oil capacity to exceed 8 million barrels per day. At that point OPEC could lose its ability to set or influence prices and global oil prices could drop sharply. While that would take a heavy toll on many Western energy producers, it would prove disastrous for OPEC’s member states. 

Much closer to home, Israel’s onshore shale oil potential may well match what’s left of Saudi’s oil reserves. And Israel’s additional offshore shale gas potential is set to rocket the Jewish state to energy superpower status rivalling the OPEC states.  Still to come, however, would be the impact felt from the development of China’s huge shale resource that could easily eclipse those of the United States and Canada (the latter being oilsands).

Then there’s the massive shale potential of Russia, Argentina and even Australia. Europe may currently be sleeping at the wheel of its energy road map due to environmental concerns, but it’s just a matter of time before European monetary crisis – and the domestic riches to be had – is also fracked by the shale development bug. The point being that, from Asia to the Americas to Europe, oil and natural gas bounties are opening up in numerous non-OPEC, non-Arab countries.

The world is changing and fracking is changing it. So what is the geopolitical fall-out when much of the world no longer thirsts for Middle East Arab oil and gas?

While the global extent of the fracking-induced geopolitical tremors are still to be felt, the shaking up of the Arab Middle East and its tyrannical oil policies is moving the regional tectonic plates as politics never could.

And there’s a lesson for the western powers here, especially those still debating whether fracking their domestic shale is ‘green’ or not: In the movies love makes the world go round; in the real world it’s energy.

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