Benny Peiser / 19.03.2008 / 12:34 / 0 / Seite ausdrucken

Sir Arthur C Clarke (1917 - 2008)

Gestern ist Sir Arthur C Clarke im Alter von 90 Jahren gestorben. Aus diesem Anlaß habe ich heute eine Sondernummer von CCNet verschickt, die auch etwas von der jahrelangen Korrespondenz zwischen Arthur und mir enthält. Eine Ehrenrettung des deutschen Humors gibt es dabei ebenso zu finden wie einen jüdischer Witz über die erste Mondlandung: Dear Benny, Have you heard the Jewish joke about Neil Armstrong’s first words on the Moon? (Neil had - I asked him!). When asked why he said “That’s one step for Man, one giant leap for Manny Klein,” he explained that he once heard his neighbour Mrs Klein say “You’ll get oral sex when the boy next door walks on the Moon!” Auch nicht schlecht ist dieses e-mail von Arthur: Just came across this quote from Stanley Kubrick: “Gentiles don’t know how to worry.”


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Arthur Clarke was the father of British science-fiction and a global figure of immense importance to the defining literary genre of the 20th century. He came to prominence shortly after the Second World War with an article predicting geostationary satellites that would make global broadcasting and worldwide television a reality, decades before they became possible.

His far-sightedness led him to write dozens of science fiction novels, of which perhaps the most famous is 2001: A Space Odyssey — made into a spectacular film by the late director Stanley Kubrick.
Clarke and Kubrick created a vision of outer space that was more than just technology but had a mythic quality that probed the philosophy of the universe.

The original story was a short novella dealing with the idea of Man’s evolution being inspired by the intervention of a distant god-like extra-terrestrial civilisation. In the film the computer Hal, which went mad and nearly killed the astronauts on board a mission to Jupiter, was widely believed to have been derived by moving the letters IBM one step backwards. In an interview with me in the 1990s Clarke denied that this was so, and said it had merely been an amusing coincidence.

His own favourite work was Songs of Distant Earth — a nostalgic story of human colonists in a far-off part of the galaxy hankering after their origins.

Born in Minehead, Somerset, Clarke suffered as a young man from polio, which left him slightly disabled. After his success as a novelist he moved to Sri Lanka where he set up home with several local retainers, whom he treated as family. One of his great pleasures was scuba diving, which he undertook while already in advanced years, claiming that it gave him a feeling of weightlessness he knew he would never experience as an astronaut.

To the end of his life he never lost his sense of wonder, his sense of humour or his strong Somerset accent. While sorely disappointed with the failure of Man’s space flight to achieve the lofty goals that he had foreseen, he always retained an optimism about the Universe and Man’s place in it.


========= CORRESPONDENCE WITH ARTHUR ===========

(3) SPACEGUARD REVISITED

Sir Arthur Clarke [blenheim@sri.lanka.net]

Dear Benny,

      Herewith my convocation address. It’s for a lay audience so I’ve made it simple as possible.

        All best,

              Arthur   27 May 98

——————————————

SPACEGUARD REVISITED

Convocation Address

by

Sir Arthur C Clarke, Kt., CBE

Chancellor, University of Moratuwa, Sri Lanka

26 May 1998

Less than four years ago, in October 1994, I devoted my Convocation Address to something which probably few people had ever worried about -  the danger to our planet of impacts from space. Well, during those four years so much has happened that I make no apologies for returning to the subject.

If you spend a few hours at night under a perfectly clear sky -  which, alas, I haven’t done for years - you are almost certain to see a few meteors sliding silently across the stars; there are times, indeed, when you may see hundreds. One such occasion is due in November 1999: a Space Shuttle launch has been rescheduled, and the owners of communications satellites are already rushing to take out insurance. For though that ‘shining furrow’, as Tennyson called it, is caused by an object not much larger than a pea burning up as it enters the atmosphere, that has enough energy to damage, or even destroy, delicate orbiting equipment costing hundreds of millions of dollars. Tennyson, who a century and a half ago saw ‘the heavens filled with commerce’ could never have imagined that one day this would be literally true.

Quite often, one of these cosmic fragments is large enough to survive passage through the atmosphere, and falls to earth. We then call it a ‘meteorite’; the word ‘meteor’ applies merely to the streak of light
across the sky.   

That meteorites did fall -  sometimes in large numbers over considerable areas - had been known from time immemorial; indeed, it has been suggested that they were the only source of iron for early man. Yet two hundred years ago, in what has been called the Age of Enlightenment, there was great scepticism about their existence. Thomas Jefferson, widely considered the most brilliant President ever to sit in the White House, once remarked after hearing that a couple of academic gentlemen had witnessed a shower of meteorites: “I would rather believe that two Yankee professors lied, than that stones fell from the sky.” Well, now we know that mountains can fall from the sky.

The evidence is overwhelming, yet only in the last few decades has this been accepted: as someone once said: “The obvious we see eventually.”

Perhaps the best example of this phenomenon is the famous Meteor Crater in Arizona - a huge hole in the ground more than a kilometre across.  Despite the perfectly accurate name that the locals had given to it, for years most geologists argued that the crater was home-grown - some kind of volcanic formation! Now we know that it was produced by the impact some 50,000 years ago of a nickel-iron mass about as large as this building. Once they removed their mental blindfolds, geologists started finding impact craters all over the world. About two hundred have now been identified, and there must be many more hidden in the ocean depths. We live in a very dangerous neighborhood: what has happened countless times in the past will, inevitably, occur again in the future.

What did most to focus the attention of the scientific - and non-scientific - community on this fact was a paper published in 1980 by the American physicist Luis Alvarez and his geologist son Walter, suggesting that the extinction of the dinosaurs was linked with the impact of an asteroid on Earth, about 65 million years ago*.
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* Luis was a good friend of mine, and I dedicated my 1963 novel Glide Path to him. This work of barely disguised fiction was based on my experiences as an RAF officer when I took over the GCA (Ground Control Approach) radar blind-landing system which ‘Luie’ had invented at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The main protagonist was modelled on him, and I am very happy that my prediction of his Nobel Prize came true a few years later.
——————————

The word ‘asteroid’ is unfortunate, because it means ‘small star’ - and asteroids are in fact only small planets, most of them between Mars and Jupiter. The largest, Ceres, is just under a thousand kilometres across, but they come in all sizes down to ones that would sit comfortably on the Galle Face Green (what there is left of it.) So where one draws the line between meteorites and asteroids is a matter of definition; they all bits of debris left over from the formation of the Solar System.

And so are comets, which are enormously larger but no heavier than asteroids, since they are almost entirely clouds of extremely thin gas,  surrounding a small, solid nucleus. When, after many trips round the sun, all its volatile material has boiled off into space, only this core is left - and the comet becomes a normal asteroid.

I am proud to say that the International Astronomical Union, which is in charge of such matters, recently named an asteroid (previously known only by a number, 4923) after me. It’s about ten kilometres in diameter, and spends most of its time near the orbit of Mars, so I’m afraid its climate is rather chilly. The IAU apologised to me because Number 2001 was no longer available. Apparently it had been allocated several years ago, to somebody named A. Einstein. 

As far as the resulting damage to planet Earth was concerned, it would not make the slightest difference whether the impactor was a comet or an asteroid. However, because it is such an impressive astronomical object, we could see a comet months before it hit. But an asteroid might give only two minute’s warning, when the sky suddenly exploded…

This happened over a remote part of Siberia in 1908. Luckily, though a huge area of forest was devastated, there was no loss of human life.

There have been several other major events since then, again in uninhabited areas, and in 1972 there was a hair-raising near-miss. On 10 August, a large meteorite streaked half way across the United States and was seen not only by thousands of people, but recorded by many amateur photographers. It came within a mere 58 kilometres of ground level; had its trajectory been slightly different, some American city might have emulated Hiroshima.

I’m not sure if this provided any inspiration for my novel Rendezous with Rama, which opened with the destruction of Northern Italy by asteroid impact in the year 2077. This disaster resulted in the establishment of a warning system, to which I gave the name - SPACEGUARD. Well, fact has followed fiction. When the U.S. House of Representatives asked NASA to study the problem, I was delighted when the resulting 1992 report was entitled THE SPACEGUARD SURVEY, with due acknowledgement.

That same year, a senior editor of TIME wrote to me saying that though the magazine had never deliberately published fiction, they’d like me to write a short story for a special issue. The result was The Hammer of God, in which I attempted to answer the question: what could we do to save ourselves if we see a killer rock headed this way?

The novel-length version of The Hammer of God appeared in 1993 - and just one year later, the whole world had a grandstand view of the most spectacular collision ever observed in our Solar System. The impact of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 on Jupiter in July 1994 made holes in the giant planet’s atmosphere larger than the Earth; they could be seen even in the smallest telescope, and the after-effects lingered for months.

Only a few weeks ago, there was a great deal of alarm when the initial orbit calculated for the newly-discovered asteroid 1997 XF11 suggested that it might collide with Earth in the year 2028. Luckily, after a hunt through the thousands of photographic plates collected by astronomers over many decades, an earlier image of XF11 was discovered. This made it possible to compute a much more accurate orbit, and we now know that there is no danger from this particular asteroid - at least for millions of years!

This rather embarrassing affair - the correction came only a day after the initial report - has triggered a major debate in the astronomical community. A protocol is now being drawn up to reduce the chance of any premature and perhaps inacurate announcement. And I am happy to say that NASA is now in the process of establishing a new office to deal with the problem, with an initial annual budget of $3,000,000. 

Among the members of NASA’s SPACEGUARD Committee is my old friend the Dutch-American astronomer Tom Gehrels, one of the world’s leading experts on asteroids. He has visited Sri Lanka on several occasions, hoping to establish an observatory here - so far without success, because of a deplorable lack of interest in astronomy (as opposed to astrology!)   

This situation, I hope, may be rectified now that the Japanese Government has made an extraordinarily generous gift of a half-million dollar observatory-class telescope, currently located at the Arthur Clarke Centre. Although this is far from being an ideal location, the best observing sites are currently inaccessible and good work can still be done at Moratuwa - if we can find experienced and enthusiastic staff. I might add that most comets and many asteroids are discovered by amateurs working with telescopes considerably smaller than the one we now possess.

Some might argue that, in a world already nervous about global warming, poisoned oceans, DIY nuclear bombs,  etc.  etc., any discussion of protection from asteroids amd comets is a massive exercise in irrelevancy. Yet there is much that can - and should - be done, as is proved by the current intense debate among astronomers, space scientists, and under-employed Star Warriors looking for new targets.

It is an old idea - going back at least to Andre Maurois’ “The War Against The Moon” (1927) - that only a threat from beyond the Earth could unify the quarrelsome human species. So it may indeed be a stroke of luck that such a threat has been discovered, at just the period in history when we can devise technologies to deal with it.

Although some suggested cures may sound worse than the disease (Dr Edward Teller has proposed a bodyguard of orbiting H-bombs) there are several plausible alternatives. They all depend on the length of the warning time available.

Of the many defences proposed, the most elegant (and environmentally friendly!) one is to rendezvous with any asteroid on an orbit liable to impact Earth, and to persuade it to make a slight change of course. If there was sufficient warning time, only a modest amount of rocket propulsion would be necessary. This was the scenario I developed in The Hammer of God, which was later optioned by a promising young movie-maker named Steven Spielberg. I don’t know how much of my story he has used, but I have a double interest in Deep Impact, as he is calling the film. The role of the first black President of the United States is played by Morgan Freeman, now considered by many to be the finest actor in America. Well, Morgan has just optioned my own Rendezvous with Rama, which started the whole SPACEGUARD business. I can’t wait…

Meanwhile SPACEGUARD Foundations have been set up in the UK, the US and Australia, to persuade goverments to fund a survey which would, for the first time, give us some idea of the real extent of the danger. At the moment, we probably do not know even one tenth of the NEO’s -  Near Earth Objects - which must exist.

In one of his last books, Carl Sagan pointed out that no really long-lived civilization could survive unless it develops space travel, because major asteroid impacts will be inevitable in any solar system over the course of millennia. Larry Niven summed up the situation with the memorable phrase: “The dinosaurs became extinct because they didn’t have a space programme.” And we will deserve to become extinct, if we don’t have one.

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(4) ON STEVEN SPIELBERG AND ASTEROID MOVIES

Sir Arthur Clarke [blenheim@sri.lanka.net]

Dear Benny,

Amused by Scott Manley’s comments on ARMAGEDDON, which I’ve not yet seen. I have seen DEEP IMPACT, which I thought fairly good - but not as good as it should have been if Spielberg had used THE HAMMER OF GOD! I didn’t even get a credit and wept bitterly all the way to the bank. However, he still has the option - perhaps he’ll do the job properly in a few years time…

        All best,
              Sir Arthur Clarke                              
                  11 Feb 99 (Whoops - 1999!)   

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(5) ON GERMAN HUMOUR

Sir Arthur Clarke [blenheim@sri.lanka.net]

Dear Benny,

      This spectacular disproof of Mark Twain’s “A German joke is no laughing matter” is one of the funniest things I’ve heard recently:

    Last week East Germany was hit by an earthquake which caused millions of dollars of improvements.

        All best,

                Arthur     25 Feb 99

===================
(6) ON TOMMY GOLD

Sir Arthur Clarke [blenheim@sri.lanka.net]

Dear Benny,

        Re nanobes, have you seen Tommy Gold’s new book suggesting that there may be much more life inside the earth than on it - and at high temperatures! We’re just a thin film on the outside…

      All best,

          Arthur   24 Mar 99

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(7) THE MOON MAKERS

Sir Arthur Clarke [blenheim@sri.lanka.net]

Dear Benny and Jay,

  I have to pass on this fascinating and astonishing item from space
artist Roy Miller…

From: “Ron Miller”

To: blenheim@Sri.Lanka.net
Date: Fri, 14 May 1999 07:54:09 +0000


“I just read Hammer of God this past week (sorry I didn’t get to it sooner! I almost always read your books as soon as they come out—don’t know what happened with this one . . . ). Enjoyed it very much, of course. I suppose I don’t have to tell you about the imminent-asteroid-collision novel, The Moon Makers, by Arthur Train and Robert Wood? In it a nuclear-powered space craft makes a rendezvous with an asteroid named Medusa, which is on a collision course with the earth. By setting off a small, continuous nuclear reaction on its surface, the astronauts give the asteroid just enough sideways thrust that, several million miles later, it misses the earth. I find it fascinating that this was written in 1917.”


Completely new to me - but I can add info about Wood - one of the most celebrated scientists of his day, famous for his work in spectroscopy - and for exposing the ‘N-rays’ nonsense, which destroyed the reputation of French science for a decade.

Quite an uncanny likeness to the cold-fusion affair - though in this case I believe/hope the outcome will be different.

I’ve just learned somthing that’s made my day - the translator of 2001 into Hungarian (printed in 1973) is now the President of the country!! Will have to send him the handsome Millennium edition that’s being planned….

      All best,

          Arthur     14 May 99

=================
(8) DOOMSDAY NONSENSE

Sir Arthur Clarke [blenheim@sri.lanka.net]

Dear Benny,

“Summertime on Icarus” (aka The Hottest Piece of Real Estate in the solar system) is in Tales of Ten Worlds as well as in another collection “The Nine Billion Names of God”. However, all my short stories will be published in one voluminous book later this year.

“Hide and Seek” also in Expedition to Earth and Nine Billion Names of God is another asteroid story. There may be more but I can’t recall at the moment. Of course, I’m very proud that there’s now one named after me - 4923

Tell my Israeli friends I take a dim view of all doomsday nonsense - especially after the recent appalling African affair. Still my hands are hardly clean. I think I have destroyed the world at least six times, notably in the Nine Billion Names of God.

Overwhelmed with projects - here’s the latest on my affairs as well as a report on my US trip which I may or may not have sent you.

All best.

Arthur
      2000 March 31

PS Have you heard this classic Jewish telegram: START WORRYING - DETAILS FOLLOW

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(9) MINOR PLANET (7107) PEISER

Sir Arthur Clarke [blenheim@sri.lanka.net]

Dear Benny,

        Congratulations! Now we’re both absentee landlords beyond the orbit of Mars.

      (The IAU apologised to me because 2001 wasn’t available - it had been allocated to someone called A. Einstein.

        All best,

        Arthur   7 Apr 99

============
(10) DAVID LEVY & STANLEY KUBRICK

Sir Arthur C. Clarke [blenheim@sri.lanka.net]

Dear Benny,

Thanks for update. Hope something comes out of all this. David Levy reminds me I took part in the discussion with Shoemaker by TV when SL9 impacted on Jupiter in 1994. I’d completely forgotten!

Just came across this quote from Stanley Kubrick: “Gentiles don’t know how to worry”  I’m sure if I sent you my favourite Jewish telegram: “Start worrying (stop) Details follow.”

All best,
        Arthur   27 Sep `00.

================
(11) AN OPEN LETTER TO THE PEOPLE OF LIVERPOOL

Sir Arthur C. Clarke [blenheim@sri.lanka.net]

An open letter from Sir Arthur C Clarke to the people of Liverpool.

My 1973 novel ‘Rendezvous with Rama’ opens by describing the two giant meteor impacts in 1908 and 1947 which could have wiped out a major city had they not occurred in remote parts of Russia. It continues with the destruction of Northern Italy in the summer of 2077.

“After the initial shock, mankind reacted with a determination and a unity that no earlier age could ever have shown. Such a disaster might not occur again for a thousand years - but it might occur tomorrow. And the next time, the consequences might be even worse. “Very well; there would be no next time. No meteorite large enough to cause catastrophe would ever again be allowed to breach the defenses of Earth. So began Project SPACEGUARD…..”

I am delighted, therefore, that the name that I invented has been adopted both by NASA and in the UK. Since the publication of the British government Near Earth Object Task Force report on 18th September the prospect of a real Spaceguard project has come a step closer. If and when the government decides to act on the clear and sensible recommendations made by the Task Force one of the first tasks will be to build a large telescope to scan the skies for potentially hazardous asteroids and comets. The type of instrument recommended in the report will be the most powerful surveillance telescope in the world, and will be able to detect the sort of object that wiped out an area the size of Greater London in 1908 - luckily in Siberia. We might not be so lucky next time.

The UK has a proud tradition of building fine scientific instruments, especially astronomical telescopes, and Liverpool has become a distinguished centre for this high technology industry. I think that it would be most fitting if the engineers and craftsmen of Merseyside built the premiere British Spaceguard telescope, for the benefit of the whole country. Such an undertaking will be a significant technical challenge, but the result will contribute substantially to the protection of our only home - the Earth.

There is another excellent reason why Liverpool should be involved. It was there that Phillip Cleator founded the British Interplanetary Society in 1933, and one of the Society’s earliest supporters was Mr Moore. Those who ridiculed the idea of travel beyond the Earth would have been amazed to know that before the end of the century, Space would be a matter of vital concern to everyone.

Sixtyfive million years ago, an asteroid impact in what is now South America changed the biology of our planet, and gave us mammals our window of opportunity. Science-fiction writer Larry Niven summed it up perfectly: “The dinosaurs became extinct because they didn’t have a space programme.”

Arthur C Clarke
Colombo Sri Lanka
23 Sept 2000

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(12) HAVE YOU HEARD THE JEWISH JOKE ABOUT NEIL ARMSTRONG?

Sir Arthur C. Clarke [mailto:blenheim@sri.lanka.net]

Dear Benny,

    Have you heard the Jewish joke about Neil Armstrong’s first words on the Moon? (Neil had - I asked him!) 

  When asked why he said “That’s one step for Man, one giant leap for Manny Klein,” he explained that he once heard his neighbour Mrs Klein say “You’ll get oral sex when the boy next door walks on the Moon!”

All best,
      Arthur  

==================
(13) PROBLEMS WITH SPACEGUARD

Sir Arthur C Clarke [blenheim@sri.lanka.net]

Dear Benny,

Exhausted after whole day with Buzz and Lois Aldrin - hours of press conferences.

Now getting two or three requests a day and really have nothing new to say on Spaceguard (though I wish they’d mention where the name originated!)

Really the whole situation is summed up with Larry Nivens’ “The Dinosaurs became extinct because they didn’t have a space programme.”  It will serve us right if we suffer the same fate.

All best,
Arthur     26 Feb. `01.


===================
(14) ON FRED HOYLE

Sir Arthur C Clarke [blenheim@eureka.lk]

Dear Benny,

  Sorry to hear about Fred - I met him first in a weekend at my Harper’s
editor, George Jones, who published both of us the first time in the US. He was certainly a remarkable character, but I think behaved badly many times.  Did he ever apologise to the British Museum?

    Meanwhile of course I am very interested in the Spaceguard developments, and I hope those involved will use *The Hammer of God* as their Bible.

All good wishes,
  Arthur 23 Aug. `01.


================
(15) PROMOTING LJMU’S NATIONAL SCHOOL OBSERVATORY

Sir Arthur C. Clarke [mailto:blenheim@Sri.lanka.net]

Dear Benny,

Herewith:

I am delighted to see this interest in astronomy in the United Kingdom. The study of the Universe is the most inspiring of all intellectual activities - and the Solar System will be the next frontier of the human race.

Britain is, quite frankly, not a good site for astronomy - as the Greenwich Observatory finally realised by moving elsewhere! But thanks to modern technology, that no longer matters. The lucky young astronomers of today
can look through telescopes located all over the world, and even on mountain tops, so close to the borders of space, that they have essentially perfect seeing.

My very best wishes to the project.

Sir Arthur C Clarke


Colombo Sri Lanka
22 Nov. `01.

==================
(16) ON 9/11, TECHNOLOGY, SECURITY AND TERRORISM

Sir Arthur C Clarke [blenheim@sri.lanka.net]

Dear Benny,

    What a coincidence! I’ve just completed a thirty-minute video tape with the Director of the Lawrence Livermore Laboratories - mostly on the subject of International Security and Terrorism!

    I showed him (Dr. Ron Lehman) your email - thought it excellent and you’re right in thinking there is no easy technological solution - though I did laughingly (?) suggest one in the distant future - every human being should be implanted with a microchip at birth which would (a) give his location (b) trigger his state of mind at any time (3) take control if necessary.

  Incidentally, I believe the movie Minority Report is along these lines - haven’t seen it yet.

Feeling o.k. but overwhelmed with projects - here is the latest update.

                    All best,
                        Arthur   6 Sep. `02.


EGOGRAM 2001/2002

Obviously 2001, of all years, deserves an Egogram, though it is indelibly stained with the events of 11 September.  I am still spooked by the fact that, in 1973, I chose that very date in Rendezvous with Rama for the worst disaster in human history. Several SPACEGUARD Foundations have now been established as a result of the novel.

I lost one good friend during the year - Roger Caras, on 19th of February. He was Stanley Kubrick’s Vice President, and I am also deeply grieved that Stanley did not live to see the year he made famous.

Although I hope never to leave Sri Lanka again, I did the next best thing by appearing as a convincing 3-D Hologram at the Comdex Exhibition in Las Vegas on 13 November. That same week, 16th November, brother Fred represented me very adequately at the Arthur Clarke GALA at the Playboy Mansion, and was able to hobnob with the people who were really there, such as Patrick Stewart, Buzz Aldrin, James Cameron and Morgan Freeman who is now filming RAMA.

I’ve now become involved in the Internet and took part in a Web discussion with Leonardo DiCaprio, on 28th September, in aid of the Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund.  Apparently there are numerous Websites devoted to me, but I have never had time to look at them. 

I am happy to say that the Ekanayake family is fine   - we were all together for Christmas, as the two older girls, Cherene and Tamara, were back from University in Australia. They are now beautiful young ladies, and Melinda is already over 12.  My beloved Chihuahua, Pepsi, must be nearing that age, but is still quite active, which is more than I can say for myself as I am now completely wheel-chaired. However, I can still play a vicious game of Table Tennis, as long as I can lean on the table.

I may be more mobile shortly, as Hector has constructed a massive wheel-chair with balloon tyres, no less, which should allow me to visit beaches which have been too long out of bounds.

I have managed to get away from my Colombo office several times to stay at Scuba Villa, 101 kms south of here, and to visit the Arthur Clarke Model School at Baddegama, celebrating its first anniversary.

Now that I am safely past my 84th birthday, I really have nothing to grumble about - even my memory seems unimpaired, though sometimes the access time is longer than I would prefer.

Arthur Clarke
2002 July 2

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(17) ON EDWARD TELLER (1908-2003)

Sir Arthur C Clarke [blenheim@sri.lanka.net]

Dear Benny,

    Thanks - quite a guy! But don’t think we ever had any contact. As you know, I’ve tackled this subject in HAMMER OF GOD - and in RENDEZVOUS WITH RAMA - where I chose tomorrow - WTC + 2! - for the catastrophe…And invented the name SPACEGUARD…

    Hard at work on THE LAST THEOREM - my final novel.
   
                All best,
                    Arthur     10 Sept 03

==============
(18) ON THE 2004 INDIAN OCEAN TSUNAMI

Sir Arthur C Clarke [blenheim@sri.lanka.net]

Dear Benny,

Thank you for your concern about my safety in the wake of last Sunday’s devastating tidal wave.

I am enormously relieved that my family and household have escaped the ravages of the sea that suddenly invaded most parts of coastal Sri Lanka, leaving a trail of destruction.

But many others were not so fortunate. For over two million Sri Lankans and a large number of foreign tourists holidaying here, the day after Christmas turned out to be a living nightmare reminiscent of The Day After Tomorrow. My heart-felt sympathy goes out to all those who lost family members or friends.

Among those who directly experienced the waves were my staff based at our diving station in Hikkaduwa, and my holiday bungalows in Kahawa and Thiranagama all beachfront properties located in southern areas that were badly hit. Our staff members are all safe, even though some are badly shaken and relate harrowing first hand accounts of what happened. Most of our diving equipment and boats at Hikkaduwa were washed away. We still don’t know the full extent of damage—it will take a while for us to take stock as accessing these areas is still difficult.

This is indeed a disaster of unprecedented magnitude for Sri Lanka, which lacks the resources and capacity to cope with the aftermath. We are encouraging concerned friends to contribute to the relief efforts launched by various national and international organisations. If you wish to join these efforts, I can recommend two options.

- Contribute to a Sri Lanka disaster relief fund launched by an internationally operating humanitarian charity, such as Care or Oxfam.

- Alternatively, considering supporting Sarvodaya, the largest development charity in Sri Lanka, which has a 45-year track record in reaching out and helping the poorest of the poor. Sarvodaya has mounted a well organised, countrywide relief effort using their countrywide network of offices and volunteers who work in all parts of the country, well above ethnic and other divisions. Their website, http://www.sarvodaya.lk, provides bank account details for financial donations. They also welcome contributions in kind—a list of urgently needed items is found at: http://www.sarvodaya.lk/Inside_Page/urgently%20needed.htm

There is much to be done in both short and long terms for Sri Lanka to raise its head from this blow from the seas. Among other things, the country needs to improve its technical and communications facilities so that effective early warnings can help minimise losses in future disasters.

Curiously enough, in my first book on Sri Lanka, I had written about another tidal wave reaching the Galle harbour (see Chapter 8 in The Reefs of Taprobane, 1957). That happened in August 1883, following the eruption of Krakatoa in roughly the same part of the Indian Ocean.

Arthur Clarke
29 December 2004

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(19) ARTHUR’S LAST E-MAIL

Sir Arthur C Clarke [blenheim@arthurclarke.org]

Dear Benny,

Many thanks for your recent email.

I’m sorry for this delayed reply. Shortly after my 90th birthday, I entered hospital with back pains, and doctors found I had a cracked vertebra. I returned home 10 days later, but full healing would take many weeks during which I have to be extremely careful.

I’m now surviving on 16 hours of sleep everyday, and getting used to doing some reading and light work from my semi-reclined position. I’m very well looked after by my doctors, physiotherapists, staff and valets, and am in no pain or discomfort. But I can’t wait to get back to my hover-chair…

Attached is my latest Egogram, which reminds me that I’ve had another good year.

Please bear with this circular email, with which I’m trying to catch up on dozens accumulated in recent weeks. I send you my greetings and best wishes for 2008.

Arthur
30 Jan 2008

................................
Sir Arthur C Clarke
25, Barnes Place, Colombo 7, Sri Lanka.
Phone: +94 11 2699 757 or 2694 255
Fax: +94 11 2698 730
Email:

Arthur C Clarke Foundation: http://www.clarkefoundation.org/
90th birthday reflections video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qLdeEjdbWE

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(20) AND FINALLY: HOW GOOD WERE ARTHUR’S PREDICTIONS?

Sir Arthur C. Clarke’s predictions for 2001 to 2100.
CCNet, 27 August 1999
http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/ccc/cc082799.html

2001 Jan. 1   The next millennium and century begin.

-  Cassini spaceprobe (launched October 1997; arrives Saturn July
    2000) begins exploration of the planet’s moons and rings.

-  Galileo probe (launched October 1989) continues surveying Jupiter
    and its moons. Life beneath the ice-covered oceans of Europa
    appears increasingly likely.

2002 The first commercial device producing clean, safe power by
    low-temperature nuclear reactions goes on the market, heralding
    the end of the Fossil-Fuel Age. Economic and geopolitical
    earthquakes follow, and, for their discovery of so-called “Cold
    Fusion” in 1989, Pons and Fleischmann receive the Nobel Prize for
    Physics.

2003 The motor industry is given five years to replace all fuel-burning
    engines by the new energy device.

-  NASA’s robot Mars Surveyor (carrying Lander and Rover) is
    launched.

2004 The first (publicly admitted) human clone.

2005 The first sample launched back to Earth by Mars Surveyor.

-    The Dalai Lama returns to Tibet.

2006 The world’s last coal mine closed in India.

2007 NASA’s Next Generation Space Telescope (successor to the Hubble)
    launched.

-    President Chandrika Kumaratunga gets the Nobel Prize for
    restoring peace to Sri Lanka.

2008 On what would have been his 80th birthday, July 26, the film
    director Stanley Kubrick, who made 2001: A Space Odyssey,
    posthumously receives a special Oscar for Lifetime Achievement.

2009 A city in North Korea is devastated by the accidental explosion
    of an A-bomb. After a brief debate in the U.N., all nuclear
    weapons are destroyed.

2010 The first Quantum Generators (tapping space energy) are
    developed. Available in portable and household units from a few
    kilowatts upward, they can produce electricity indefinitely.
    Central power stations close down; the age of pylons ends as grid
    systems are dismantled.

-    In spite of protests against “Big Brother” government, electronic
    monitoring virtually removes professional criminals from society.

2011 Largest living animal filmed: a 75-meter octopus in the Mariana
    Trench. By a curious coincidence, later that same year even
    larger marine creatures are discovered when the first robot
    probes drill through the ice of Europa, and an entire new biota
    is revealed.

2012 Aerospace-planes enter service. The history of space travel has
    repeated that of aeronautics, although more slowly, because the
    technical problems are so much greater. From Yuri Gagarin to
    commercial space flight has taken twice as long as from the
    Wright Brothers to the DC-3.

2013 On a flight sponsored by Bandar Seri Begawan, a Brunei prince
    becomes the first member of a royal family to fly in space.

2014 Construction of Hilton Orbiter Hotel begins, by assembling and
    converting the giant Shuttle tanks which had previously been
    allowed to fall back to Earth.

2015 An inevitable byproduct of the Quantum Generator is complete
    control of matter at the atomic level. Thus the old dream of
    alchemy is realized on a commercial scale, often with surprising
    results. Within a few years, since they are more useful, lead and
    copper cost twice as much as gold.

2016 All existing currencies are abolished. The megawatt-hour becomes
    the unit of exchange.

2017 December 16. On his 100th birthday, Sir Arthur Clarke is one of
    the first guests in the Hilton Orbiter.

-    China holds the first nationwide popular elections to its
    parliament.

2019 A major meteor impact occurs on the North Polar icecap. There is
    no loss of human life, but the resulting tsunamis cause
    considerable damage along the coasts of Greenland and Canada. The
    long-discussed Project Spaceguard, to identify and deflect any
    potentially dangerous comets or asteroids, is finally activated

2020 Artificial Intelligence (AI) reaches the human level. From now
    onward there are two intelligent species on Planet Earth, one
    evolving far more rapidly than biology would ever permit.
    Interstellar probes carrying AIs are launched toward the nearer
    stars.

2021 The first humans land on Mars, and have some unpleasant
    surprises.

2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.
    Disney’s Triassic Zoo opens in Florida. Despite some unfortunate
    initial accidents, mini-raptors start replacing guard dogs.

2024 Infra-red signals are detected coming from the center of the
    Milky Way Galaxy. They are obviously the product of a
    technologically advanced civilization, but all attempts to
    decipher them fail.

2025 Neurological research finally leads to an understanding of all
    the senses, and direct inputs become possible, bypassing eyes,
    ears, skin, etc. The inevitable result is the metal “Braincap” of
    which the 20th century’s Walkman was a primitive precursor.
    Anyone wearing this helmet, fitting tightly over the skull, can
    enter a whole universe of experience real or imaginary - and even
    merge in real-time with other minds. Apart from its use for
    entertainment and vicarious adventure, the Braincap is a boon to
    doctors, who can now experience their patients symptoms (suitably
    attenuated). It also revolutionizes the legal profession;
    deliberate lying is impossible. As the Braincap can only function
    properly on a completely bald head, wig-making becomes a major
    industry.

2026 Singapore becomes the world’s first country to enforce Truth in
    Advertising.

2036 China overtakes the U.S. in gross national product to become the
    world’s largest economy.

2040 The “Universal Replicator,” based on nano-technology, is
    perfected: any object, however complex, can be created - given
    the necessary raw material and the appropriate information
    matrix. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from
    dirt. As a result, agriculture and industry are phased out,
    ending that recent invention in human history - work! There is an
    explosion in arts, entertainment and education. Hunter-gathering
    societies are deliberately recreated; huge areas of the planet,
    no longer needed for food production, are allowed to revert to
    their original state. Young people can now discharge their
    aggressive instincts by using cross-bows to stalk big game, which
    is robotic and frequently dangerous.

2045 The totally self-contained, recycling, mobile home (envisaged
    almost a century earlier by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any
    additional carbon needed for food synthesis is obtained by
    extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

2047 Hong Kong celebrates its 50th year as an SAR by completely
    eliminating border controls and barriers between itself and the
    rest of China.

2050 “Escape from Utopia.” Bored by life in this peaceful and
    unexciting era, millions decided to use cryonic suspension to
    emigrate into the future in search of adventure. Vast
    “hibernacula” are established in the Antarctic and in the regions
    of perpetual night at the lunar poles.

2051 Ground is broken on the moon for self-sustaining, robotized
    colonies, where the elderly will survive longer, thanks to the
    low lunar gravity.

2057 October 4. Centennial of Sputnik 1. The dawn of the space age is
    celebrated by humans not only on Earth, but on the Moon, Mars,
    Europa, Ganymede and Titan - and in orbit round Venus, Neptune
    and Pluto.

2061 The return of Halley’s Comet; first landing on nucleus by humans.
    The sensational discovery of both dormant and active lifeforms
    vindicates Hoyle and Wickramasinghe’s century-old hypothesis that
    life is omnipresent throughout space.

2090 Large-scale burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace the
    carbon dioxide “mined” from the air and postpone the next Ice Age
    by promoting global warming.

2095 The development of a true “space drive” - a propulsion system
    reacting against the structure of space time - makes the rocket
    obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. The first
    human explorers set off to nearby star systems that robot probes
    have already found promising.

2100 History begins…


Copyright Arthur C. Clarke 1999

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