The question is how much longer we shall have to put up with these ludicrous [G8] gatherings. I say “ludicrous” not just because of the expense, and not just because of the pages of guff I have to wade through each time the G8 leaders meet, but because the very notion of a Group of Eight “leading industrialised nations” is fast becoming a complete anachronsm.
Back in 1975, of course, there were only seven countries represented at the diplomatic top table: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. That made some sense at a time when those seven countries between them accounted for around 62 per cent of global economic output. But today that proportion is down to 57 per cent. And, if the projections made by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill and his colleagues are to be believed, that figure is set to plummet downwards in the decades that lie ahead: to around 37 per cent in 2025, and a meagre 21 per cent by 2050. That is the year, you’ll recall, by which Chancellor Merkel aims to have reduced CO2 emissions by 50 per cent.
Let’s face it, the folks at Goldman are the second cleverest people in the world. (The cleverest used to be at Goldman, but now they run their own hedge funds.) Their projections may turn out to be wrong, as projections often do. But they are the best we have to go on.
O’Neill’s argument is that the “G” in G7 stands for “Going” - as in “Going, going, gone” - or perhaps “Greying”, given the rate at which their populations are ageing. The future, in his view, belongs to the BRICs: Brazil, Russia, India and China (or the Big Rapidly Industrialising Countries, if you prefer). Today, these four economies account for around 10 per cent of global output. By 2025 that figure could be as high as 27 per cent. And by 2050 it could be 40 per cent, nearly double the share projected for the G7.
Add to that a second tier of fast-growing economies, which O’Neill has called the N-11 (as in “Next”), and you see how rapidly the balance of economic power is shifting in the world. By 2050, the BRICs plus N-11 could account for fully half the world economy. Does anyone seriously expect these countries to reduce their emissions of carbon dioxide between now and then? The whole point is that, even if they become more energy-efficient, their projected rates of growth are bound to result in significantly higher greenhouse gas emissions. What do they care what the Canadians and Italians think? [...]
Yet the rise of China continues at a pace even faster than Goldman Sachs anticipated when Jim O’Neill first coined the term BRICs. Originally, China’s gross domestic product was projected to overtake that of the United States in 2035. Recently, that date was brought forward to 2027. And while the US surges (and splurges) in Baghdad, the Chinese are building a new generation of nuclear -submarines to police the Pacific.
By the time the leaders of the Greying 7 get around to inviting China and the other two BRICs to join an enlarged G11, the horse of global power will long ago have bolted. Right now, the G8 is wide open.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml;jsessionid=EO4DNTFXP4CYTQFIQMGCFFWAVCBQUIV0?xml=/opinion/2007/06/10/do1004.xml