Does President Bush understand all this? Probably. Does his administration? The wish to disbelieve the obvious remains great, particularly as Iraq becomes more violent, which will happen this summer even if the surge is working. And although some might still want to put faith in the CIA’s estimate that Iran will make a nuclear bomb in 10 years, it’s a better bet that Iranians are significantly increasing centrifuge production because they have figured out how to make it work. Most likely, the time for diplomacy and sanctions is shrinking fast. Since the alternatives aren’t easy—blockading Iranian oil exports through the Gulf or preventive military strikes—the Bush administration will be tempted to believe in the illusion of negotiations. We can raise the white flag, and call it victory.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/013/718ftjdn.asp?pg=1