07.11.2012   16:33

President Obama’s Victory Fueled By Major Demographic Change

Every year 3 million Americans become old enough to vote, and 3 million Americans die. Of the course of 4 years, the electorate changes by about 24 million people. That’s about 15% change in just 4 years and 30% in 8 years. The special sauce of an emerging national electoral majority for Democrats begins with an Obama 64% to 36% victory among the 19% of the electorate that is below 30. Romney won those who are over 65 by 10 points, and the senior vote accounted for 17% of the total vote.  Yet, the future belongs to the young and so looks good for the Democratic party, given its great strength among those younger than 30.

President Obama won the Latino vote 3 to 1, and Latinos constituted 10% of the total vote, up from 8% in 2008.  African-Americans turned out strongly and accounted for 13% of the vote and likely increased their total votes from 2008.  White voters registered 72% of the electorate, a decline from 74% in 2008.  Governor Romney won nearly 60% of white voters, the highest percentage since George H. W. Bush won more than 400 electoral votes against Governor Dukakis.  The country has changed enormously since then.

These demographic changes are substantial and portend an enduring edge for the Democratic Party nationally, unless the Republican Party changes substantially.


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