If the EU continues to ignore?the shale revolution, Europe will become the only big economic bloc without significant energy resources. The US, India, China and Latin America will all have access to shale, as well as offshore fossil fuels. As the US approaches energy independence, Washington will probably insist Europe invest in its own energy security by taking up part of the burden of protecting the flow of Gulf oil to the west currently provided by the US Navy. The EU cannot avoid the impact of shale on its climate change policy, either. Brussels’ 2007 carbon emissions reduction targets were predicated on permanently rising fossil fuel prices, which would underpin the economic rationale for investment in a generation of renewable power. However, as shale development takes off across the planet, immense quantities of gas will become available, pushing prices downwards.

(Dr. Benny Peiser)